Climate Change Attribution; Loss and Damage in the Context of the Nepal Disaster

Following the unprecedented disastrous rock-ice avalanche and cascading floods in Nepal that has killed at least 1400 people with over 6000 still missing, the Nepalese government has now made public that it plans to use a new study on the role of climate change and limits of adaptation to seek financial compensation from a United Nations fund. 

The rapid study published by World Weather Attribution had been conducted by an interdisciplinary group of scientists from Nepal, Pakistan, the UK, Ireland, Sweden, Norway, the US, New Zealand, the Netherlands and researchers from the University of Copenhagen, Denmark.

“An event of this scale (among many others) shows us that we have long arrived in a reality where climate change results in more and more in unavoidable losses and damages. A reality where adaptation is becoming increasingly difficult, and in some instances impossible”

The study reveals that climate change had played a role in the pre-conditions of the disaster. Using peer-reviewed climate attribution methods the scientists find that human-caused warming increased temperatures in July and August by about 1.5°C at the site, while annual temperatures have risen by around 2°C. The warming has also pushed the 0°C freezing level upwards by about 100 metres per decade during the monsoon and post-monsoon seasons, contributing to permafrost degradation, glacier thinning and increased meltwater. These changes can weaken high-altitude rock walls by thawing ice within fractures and increasing water pressure. Glacier retreat may further reduce support to unstable slopes, while a greater share of precipitation is now falling as rain rather than snow, adding liquid water to the system. The researchers caution that climate change was a “destabilising factor acting on a pre-existing geological predisposition” resulting also from the 2015 Gorkha Earthquake. However, they conclude that rapid warming is increasing the likelihood and potential severity of such cascading hazards.

“In addition to the human tragedy on an unimaginable scale, the cost of recovery for this disaster is substantial. For a nation that’s done virtually nothing to contribute to this problem, it underlines the need to find fairness in helping climate vulnerable nations cope with the problems they have not unleashed.”

Social Scientists from the Copenhagen Center for Disaster Research, Nick Baumgart and Emmanuel Raju who Co-Authored the Vulnerability and Exposure Analysis of the study highlight that the disaster also exposed the limits of climate change adaptation in the mountain communities of the Himalayan region. Nepal’s early warning systems and other measures have helped reduce deaths from more conventional river floods in the past, but they were not designed for an event of this speed, scale and complexity. The cascading rock–ice avalanche transformed rapidly into a debris and flash flood, leaving little time for warnings or evacuation. Reducing exposure of populations in the area is also difficult: habitable land is limited, populations are growing and communities depend on rivers for livelihoods and economic activity. 

According to the BBC, the Nepalese government has submitted a claim of ca. 20m USD to the UN Fund for Responding to Loss and Damage, using the study as their strongest line of evidence quoting Government Official Maheshwar Dhakal, spokesperson for Nepal's Ministry of Agriculture, Forest and Environment.

The UN fund had been established last year for countries to assist countries for disasters that have caused losses and damages due to climate change. However, the fund currently holds around 400m USD compared to claims accumulating to over 3bn USD.  Moreover, while the damages and losses in Nepal exceed the requested compensation by far, it brings a question to the forefront: could it set precedence for the use of rapid climate attribution study to access loss and damage funding? 

“This report isn't a traditional World Weather Attribution study because we aren't looking at a single extreme weather event but a multi-stage mountain disaster with many factors influencing causality. Yet the climate justice reality is as sharp as ever. Communities in Nepal are paying with their lives for a crisis driven by fossil fuel emissions thousands of miles away.

The next meeting of the UN committee of the Loss and Damage fund is set to meet in December, however giving the urgency and scale, the board has declared its first extraordinary meeting in its history, to be held virtually on 22 October 2026.

Read the full study.